First, the dominant position of the US dollar as the world reserve currency has been greatly shaken, and its long-term depreciation trend has triggered a new round of rise in the price of raw materials for steel smelting.
After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the United States and Western countries announced comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia. One of the important measures is to freeze Russian assets in its territory, including foreign exchange reserves, and confiscate the assets of Russian personnel in western countries. Biden will also submit a proposal to Congress to further put pressure on the Russian rich, including confiscating the assets of the Russian rich and providing funds for Ukraine’s national defense. Biden said he would establish new administrative procedures through the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of justice to simplify the federal government’s procedures for confiscating the assets of the Russian rich. The above actions of the US government are actually “weaponizing” the US dollar and its currency reserves and turning the originally “neutral” world trade tool into a tool of blackmail and threat. It is bound to cause the anxiety of other countries’ governments to reserve dollars, and it will also cause other countries and citizens to reduce their holdings of dollars. Moreover, Russia’s exclusion from the swift system will have a great impact on world trade, especially the non dollarization of oil, natural gas, grain and other commodities, which will reduce the use and demand of a large part of dollars.
Moreover, the far-reaching impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on the relationship between steel supply and demand is that the reconstruction of some cities after the war requires a large number of materials such as steel. This makes the tension on the supply side of the international steel market more severe after the conflict. If a serious inflation cycle is superimposed at that time, and then superimposed with the strong demand for global infrastructure construction in the future, it may lead to a “super cycle” in the black commodity market in the future, that is, it is not impossible to enter the so-called “new cycle”.
2. The decline rate of coil stock slows down, and the decline rate of rebar stock slows down; Hot rolled coil inventory rose, cold rolled coil inventory accelerated, and medium and heavy plate inventory rose.
According to the monitoring data of jute steel pipe cloud business platform, on May 6, 2022, the social inventory of steel in 29 key cities in China was 14.5877 million tons, an increase of 108200 tons, an increase of 0.74%, from last week’s decline to increase; The social inventory of building materials in key cities nationwide was 9.7366 million tons, down 0.10% from last week and 2.89 percentage points slower than last week. The social inventory of sheet metal in key cities nationwide was 4.8511 million tons, down 117700 tons from last week, an increase of 2.48%. In terms of varieties, the national social inventory of winding line was 1.9185 million tons, down 0.44% from last week, 1.68 percentage points slower than last week, 13.08% lower than last month and 2.88% higher than the same period last year; The social inventory of rebar was 7.8181 million tons, down 0.02% from last week, 3.19 percentage points slower than last week, 7.60% lower than last month and 3.78% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory of hot rolled coils was 2.3673 million tons, up 1.60% from last week, 2.60% from last month and 3.60% from the same period last year. The social inventory of cold rolled sheet and coil was 1.3804 million tons, an increase of 2.08% over last week, 1.97 percentage points faster than last week, 0.53% higher than last month and 17.43% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory of medium and heavy plate was 1103400 tons, up 4.95% from last week, up 0.16% from last month and down 4.66% from the same period last year.
The national absolute price index was 5392 yuan, up 1.07% from last week and down 8.12% from the same period last year. Among them, the absolute price index of Youcai jute steel pipe was 5209 yuan, up 1.58% from last week and down 6.28% from the same period last year. The absolute price index of jute steel pipe profile was 5455 yuan, an increase of 1.15% over last week and a decrease of 4.02% over the same period last year; The absolute price index of jute steel pipe and plate was 5453 yuan, up 0.77% from last week and down 11.40% from the same period last year; The absolute price index of jute steel pipe was 5970 yuan, up 0.15% from last week and down 2.50% from the same period last year.
Post time: May-09-2022
